I've heard a lot of Bush bashing over how long it took to get military assistance to New Orleans, so I've decided to put together the timeline of what happened compared to what could have happened. Not only will it allow me to organize my thoughts on the subject, but hopefully it will enlighten many others on exactly what happened in New Orleans instead of the off-the-cuff reporting provided by all the news agencies.
Since the creation of New Orleans in 1718, flooding from the Mississippi river regularly occurred. Starting at only 3' high, levees were constructed to prevent the flooding of New Orleans. The problem with New Orleans is the fact it is surrounded on two sides by water.
Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi river. New Orleans is constantly under threat from flooding due to changing tides, overflows of the Mississippi river, rainfall, and water surges on Lake Pontchartrain from hurricane force winds.
On September 1965,
Hurricane Betsy hits Grand Isle, LA, flooding New Orleans for weeks.
The
Flood Control Act of 1965 provides more power to the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the subsequent
Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection Project leads to the creation of
hurricane levees [due to orleanslevee.com being down, I've linked to an archive] to protect New Orleans.
The hurricane levees are put to work in 1969 when
Hurricane Camille hits New Orleans and flooding tides identical to Hurricane Betsy are kept from flooding New Orleans.
The levees, and New Orleans in general, sink even lower due to
many reasons, and the levees must be raised periodically to maintain their height. Over the years, several projects are maintained by the US Army Corps of Engineers to protect the city and maintain the levees.
New Orleans is spared from any hurricanes over a category 3. In the entire recorded history of New Orleans, there has never been a hurricane above category 3. The levees were built to withstand hurricanes at this level, but not above. The
SELA project was authorized in 1993 as a solution to larger events. As of 2005, the project was reported approximately 75% complete.
A worse-case scenario is mentioned in the orleanslevee.com website. According to
the New Orleans Levee District, "In 1993, construction began to raise these levees to the Standard High Level Plan (approximately 21 feet) along both sides of the Orleans and London Avenue canals. When finished, this system will significantly reduce the danger of tidal flooding, even in a worst-case scenario where a hurricane attacks New Orleans from a Lake Pontchartrain approach."
Katrina did not approach from the Lake Pontchartrain side, but the counter-clockwise rotation of Katrina sent high winds from the Lake Pontchartrain side.
While I'm on the subject of SELA, I have heard statements blaming President Bush for cutting funding on the SELA project. In 2003, President Bush did cut spending on many projects due to the war in Iraq. The SELA project lost funding, just as many other projects lost funding. Anyone familiar with projects knows budget cuts occur all the time, and you simply redirect efforts to the most important areas required of the project. But the budgets were not cut until 2003, and when the projects began in 1997, estimates for completion of all upgrades were scheduled for 2002. In
The SELA Report No. 1, WINTER 1998, offers these quick facts:
Quick Facts*
- Parishes affected: Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany
- Total dollars to be expended: $407 Million
- Linear feet of canal to be constructed or improved: 167,200 linear feet
- New pumping stations to be installed: 3
- Existing pumping stations to be upgraded: 6
- Amount of increase in floodwater removal capacity (Orleans Parish): ½ inch per hour
- Average annual savings in flood damage costs (Jefferson Parish): $14.9 Million
- Projected construction period: 1997 - 2002
*Assumes completion of all projects presently authorized by Congress
Now PLEASE do not assume I am blaming the US Army Corps of Engineers! I only offer this information to make a point. Plans change! Funding was provided up to 2002, and in 2003 it was reduced. The US Army Corps of Engineers had several projects added to their original estimates which pushed their schedule beyond 2002. So plans change on both sides. It is a shame some people promote misleading information and politicize such a catastrophic event all in an effort to blame President Bush. But the worst part is blaming the war in Iraq for the situation in New Orleans and promoting a misleading monetary issue as another reason to end the war in Iraq. Anyone promoting such misleading information should be ashamed! Ok, I'm getting off my soapbox for now...
Since starting this entry, I've located a
report dated September 3rd, from the US Army Corps of Engineers clarifying the misleading information provided by the news media. Their report clearly states the news media is misinforming the public regarding the project information for the levees. In fact, the levee projects in question WERE fully funded, and complete. All incomplete projects have nothing to do with the levee breaches. All project work on the breached levees was completed prior to Katrina. But I guess the media doesn't care about reporting this information.
Let me recap real quick. New Orleans is surrounded by water on two sides, levees are important for New Orleans but can only withstand a category 3 hurricane, the SELA project is underway to increase the height and strength of the levees to withstand stronger events.
As of 2003, the US Army Corps of Engineers reported the SELA project is
65% complete. I have heard reports of 75% complete for 2004 or 2005, but Ihaven'tt confirmed it yet.
So we now know how bad the situation is before Katrina. Several other places
understand how vulnerable New Orleans is to catastrophic flooding. if you live in New Orleans, you know how prone to flooding it is. Water is pumped out every day. Everyone in New Orleans is aware of how far below the water line New Orleans is. You have an entire lake waiting to drain into New Orleans if the levees breaks. The water won't stop rising until the lake levels off around 15 - 25 feet to fill New Orleans.
And now, Katrina approaches from the Gulf. Let's see the timeline of Katrina's path toward New Orleans as reported by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Hurricane Center Tropical Prediction Center (all times Eastern):
Wed, Aug 24th, 2005
11:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 3%; "...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA."
5:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 2%; "...KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT24 HOURS.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER."
11:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 3%; "...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST."
Thu, Aug 25th, 2005
5:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 4%;
11:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 5%;
5:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 7%;
11:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 7%; "...EYE OF KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDACOAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKEOKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVEBEEN COMPLETED."
Fri, Aug 26th, 2005
5:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 8%; "MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHERGUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSONSCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."
11:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 10%; At 11:30, becomes a cat2
Governor Blanco Declares State of Emergency
5:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 15%;
11:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 17%
Sat, Aug 27th, 2005
5:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 17%;
Governor Blanco holds conference call with Southeast Parishes & Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.Governor Blanco requests President Bush to declare an Emergency for the State of Louisiana.
10:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 19%; "AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OFTHE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKEPONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONSARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS."
The President today
declared an emergency exists in the State of Louisiana and ordered Federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts in the parishes located in the path of Hurricane Katrina beginning on August 26, 2005, and continuing.
4:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 21%;
City of NO press release: Mayor Nagin Urges Citizens to Prepare For Hurricane Katrina - ÂWe may call for a voluntary evacuation later this afternoon or tomorrow morning to coincide with the instatement of contraflow. This will give people more options to leave the area. However, citizens need to begin preparing now so they will be ready to leave when necessary. Do everything to prepare for a regular hurricane, but treat this one differently because it is headed our way. This is not a test. ... Mayor Nagin is working with Gov. Kathleen Blanco and other City, local and State officials are watching the stormÂs path and working together to make decisions that affect citizens. Gov. Blanco has declared a state of emergency in Louisiana, which provides city government with additional authority and improved access to resources needed when responding to elevated threats, such as natural disasters. ... A state of emergency has been declared for the City of New Orleans. Citizens are advised to:
 Fill their cars with gas. Tolls have been suspended on roadways.
 Remove potential debris from their yards (including lawn furniture, potted plants, loose tree branches, etc.)
 Board windows and glass doors
 Make sure that nearby catch basins are clear of leaves or trash
 Stock up on bottled water, batteries, and non-perishable food items
 Check on family, friends and neighbors, especially the elderly, to make sure everyone has an evacuation plan
 Make provisions for pets. Shelters and many hotels do not accept pets.
... Shelters for Citizens with Special Medical Needs There are two shelters for people with special medical needs open in the state. Citizens should call prior to going to the shelters. If it becomes necessary, other shelters will be opened in various cities. The Superdome will be opened as a refuge of last resort for special needs patients if it becomes necessary. All individuals may have one caretaker. Anyone planning to spend time in a shelter should bring three to four days worth of food, sleeping gear, and medical supplies including oxygen, medicine and batteries for any necessary devices. No weapons or bulky items are allowed in any shelters. New Orleans EMS is responding to medical emergencies only. For non-emergency transportation needs, citizens should contact local non-emergency ambulance providers.
The interesting part of this is four day's worth of food and medical to the shelters. Also, the superdome is refuge of last resort for special needs patients, not a shelter.
10:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 26%; "AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THENORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THEALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKEPONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONSARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TOCOMPLETION....MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINACOULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY....COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUSBATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THECENTER MAKES LANDFALL."
Sun, Aug 28th, 2005
1:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 25%;
4:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 29%;
10:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 35%;
Around 1:00pm, Mayor Naggin orders a mandatory evacuation. If you can't get out, and no other alternative is available, he suggests you immediately move to one of the facilities within the City that will be designated as refuges of last resort. Note: This comes less than 12 hours before landfall.
Governor Blanco requests President Bushexpeditedan expidited emergency disaster for the State of Louisiana. She specifically requests assistance for funding, and debris removal only.
4:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 47%;
Traffic conditions improve enough to end the contraflow traffic lanes. Blanco urges those staying to leave. And has the following to say, ÂI want to thank the following people: President Bush for his concern; Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi and his outstanding team of professionals; the many governors who have called offering help; The parish presidents, mayors and elected officials of southeast Louisiana who have cooperated magnificently; the emergency personnel all across the state; FEMAÂs presence and support; the news media for delivering information to our people."
10:00 PM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 59%
Mon, Aug 29th, 2005
4:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 74%;
10:00 AM: Chance of hitting New Orleans: 99%
President Bush declares Louisiana as a Major Disaster, providing additional federal funding for the recovery effort.
Tue, Aug 30th, 2005
Wed, Aug 31st, 2005
Thu, Sept 1st, 2005
Governor Blanco executes Executive Order NO. KBB 2005- 31 granting emergency powers to the governor, where, she has in consultation with school superintendents, utilized public school buses for transportation of Hurricane Katrina evacuees
Executive Order NO. KBB 2005-23- Suspends the bonding requirement of persons issued a special officer's commission by the superintendent of state police. This will facilitate immediate activation and incorporation of out-of-state troopers and out-of-jurisdiction Louisiana law enforcement officers into law enforcement efforts in the disaster area.
Executive Order NO. KBB 2005-24- ensures that all evacuees occupying a hotel room shall be allowed to continue to occupy such rooms under the normal terms, conditions, and rates of the hotel or motel.
Fri, Sept. 2nd, 2005
Governor Blanco admits her initial assessments were insufficient to handle their situation and requests additional support, including additional National Guard, a second Operational Staging Base for FEMA to reduce their response time, 200 truckloads of MRE, ice, and water per day, additional communication equipment including additional frequencies, generators, a "fleet" of military vehicles, medical supplies, and assistance dealing with injured animals. Although she mentions a previous request included 40,000 troops, water & ice, vehicles, etc. I cannot locate the request in her press releases, or anywhere else I have looked. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I just can't find it if it does exist. She also requests President Bush personally handle the situation.
Sat, Sept. 3rd, 2005
Executive Order NO. KBB 2005-25- the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., directs Louisiana school Superintendents in each school district that has remained substantially operational to contact the Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness at 225-925-3916 to provide an inventory of school buses and bus drivers in their district to be used in evacuation and transportation of necessary supplies.
Executive Order NO. KBB 2005- Executive Order NO. KBB 2005- 26- Declares a state of public health emergency to allow licensed medical professionals and personnel in other states to provide assistance in Louisiana. Requires that the medical professional register with the Department of Health and Hospitals be in good standing with their home state and practice in good faith within the reasonable scope of their skill, training or ability. Any out-of-state licensed medical professional interested in providing assistance should call 225-763-8533.
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Governor Blanco announces, "Federal law prohibits active duty troops from conducting law enforcement activities. Therefore, I have directed my senior military officer, Major General Bennett Landreneau, to focus the National Guard efforts on continuing to create and maintain a secure environment. ... Yesterday, I personally briefed President Bush on our requirement for additional federal assistance. In response to this request, this morning President Bush announced more than 7,000 additional troops are on the way to help with hurricane recovery.These troops are from the 82nd Airborne, the 1st cavalry and the 1st and 2nd marine expeditionary forces.These federal troops will operate under the direct command of Gen. Russ Honore, a Louisiana native, who is the commander of Joint Task Force Katrina.This is welcome news. And I phoned the White House this morning to express my appreciation to the President.The combined forces of Task Force Pelican and Joint Task Force Katrina gives the manpower and equipment that are necessary to address our most pressing needs."
She then introduces James Lee Witt, former head of FEMA from 1993 to 2001, who will advise and assist her and Gen. Landreneau on the recovery effort.
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Well, this timeline seems to dig up more information than I can publish in an individual post, so I'll break it into a few other sections if I get the time. One of the problems I'm having with compiling this is the fact that EVERY piece of information I come across from a legitimate source contradicts stories the news reports. So I end up spending an extra day researching how the media can distort the facts as bad as they do. I've come to the conclusion that there is no way to keep up with the amount propagateding propegated at this point, so I'll include a few extra links to point anyone interested in the real truth in the right direction.
If you want to know exactly what happened, don't watch the news. The news is now just a real-time editorial bullhorn. Check out these links instead:
http://gov.louisiana.gov
http://www.fema.gov
http://www.orleanslevee.com/
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=26
http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pd/projectsList/home.asp?projectID=30&directoryFilePath=ProjectData\
http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/paperchase/2005/08/update-louisiana-martial-law.php
http://www.uscg.mil/hq/g-cp/comrel/factfile/Factcards/PosseComitatus.html
http://www.fema.gov/news/eventnews.fema?id=4808
If you start with any of these links, and follow the trails of distorted facts (avoiding news articles if possible because they are more editorial than actual neundoubtedlyll undoubtably find more factual sites to learn of things such as:
The Mayor claims to have declared Martial Law, yet Louisiana doesn't have a Martial Law declaration.
Local and State government failed to execute their evacuation plans as outlined in their official evacuation guidelines.
Hundreds may be dead in Louisiana instead of the 10,000 reported.
People in the path of a Hurricane should know to prepare for at least 3 days of food & water with no support from anyone.
The timeline of Katrina is distorted.
... and many other things. I'm not saying the Federal government isn't responsible for some of this, but they certainly are not the only section of government to blame. It starts at the local level and works its way up (including President Bush).
